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Nov 28, 2012
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fiscal cliff is such an issue. well, it's because sources of growth at this point are few and far between. >> that is the problem. where is growth going to come from. the one place that looked set for a reasonable 2013 was the u.s. economy. europe flat, china slower probably than this year. but a reasonable set of growth. if you put a 3.5%, 4% of gdp drag on that economy which was only growing at 2, 2.5, you're talking about throwing it into recession. that's why markets are taking heart this morning and equities remain nervous. >> the rhetoric, to avoid the fiscal cliff, taxes go up, dividend tax rates, personal tax rates, corporate tax rates go up, that that itself will cause economic weakness. what do you say to that? how are we supposed to balance the risks of doing things to avoid the fiscal cliff that may also hurt growth? >> one way or the other, there is a problem. if you kick the fiscal cliff down the road, then, you know, you're talking about the u.s. running deficits close to 4% to 5% over the next decad
fiscal cliff is such an issue. well, it's because sources of growth at this point are few and far between. >> that is the problem. where is growth going to come from. the one place that looked set for a reasonable 2013 was the u.s. economy. europe flat, china slower probably than this year. but a reasonable set of growth. if you put a 3.5%, 4% of gdp drag on that economy which was only growing at 2, 2.5, you're talking about throwing it into recession. that's why markets are taking heart...
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Nov 27, 2012
11/12
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same with the fiscal cliff. what are we saying with the fiscal cliff? we're saying the economy might be revealed to be what it's actually doing because we'll take away the artificial supports because we think it's held any enough now to maybe after itself. that might entail a step drop because at the moment we're giving these tax breaks, but we're doing it out of our saving. >> but the point isn't just that we have to restore a higher level perhaps of taxes and lower level of spending than we might like. the problem with the u.s. is it gets into that ideological dispute over whether the way to do that should be by cutting spending and raising taxes. so there is an actual sort of fundamental disagreement that underpins this sense of knee jerk -- >> why have we had to do this? we've had to borrow money and cut people 00 taxes and spend more on social services because the underlying private sector economy completely ran out of steam. it ran out of steam because it needs the banking system to feed off. it needs access to trade credit, to business finance, e
same with the fiscal cliff. what are we saying with the fiscal cliff? we're saying the economy might be revealed to be what it's actually doing because we'll take away the artificial supports because we think it's held any enough now to maybe after itself. that might entail a step drop because at the moment we're giving these tax breaks, but we're doing it out of our saving. >> but the point isn't just that we have to restore a higher level perhaps of taxes and lower level of spending...
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Nov 29, 2012
11/12
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and i worry about it in relative terms to the fiscal cliff. what bothers me about our situation and the situation in europe is that the political forces and the structure of these repairs take a long time, they misdeadlines continually, and they only do something when we get to the brink. we had a mechanism here in the u.s. with the sequestration process and everything got kicked down the road. we have a great opportunity to make major changes for the future and see if those pro formas actually work out as they're supposed to. but we've got to tweak it because that exponential function of increasing the deficit and increasing the aggregate debt against the backdrop ofactuarial certainty is really concerning. so the market seems to be very, very much focused on events and is driven by those reactions as we've seen. there's a lot more volatility creeping in. >> and given what we're talking about, all the risks you've laid out, what's getting some attention is the fact that the vix is now not the above 20 for four straight months. the last time w
and i worry about it in relative terms to the fiscal cliff. what bothers me about our situation and the situation in europe is that the political forces and the structure of these repairs take a long time, they misdeadlines continually, and they only do something when we get to the brink. we had a mechanism here in the u.s. with the sequestration process and everything got kicked down the road. we have a great opportunity to make major changes for the future and see if those pro formas actually...
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Nov 26, 2012
11/12
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., congress returns from a thanksgiving break he with talks to resolve the fiscal cliff. with no action by lawmakers and president obama, around 600 billion in tax hikes a and spending cuts would take effect in january. republicans and democrats are still in odds over the cause to raise taxes on the wealthiest and cutting on programs like medicare. but both sides saying they're willing to compromise. >> you have to raise additional revenues. there are ways of doing that. >> republicans always put revenue on the table. democrats always promise to cut spending. we never cut spending. what i'm looking for is more revenue for entitlement reform. >> the house speaker has called for a short term fix to overt the fiscal cliff so congress can work on a bigger deal in 2013. they naed to cut out a package that includes revenue hikes and spending cuts by the end of the year. >> americans have been out shopping early and often. almost 140 million kmers hit the stores or shopped online between thursday and sunday. that's up 6% from last year. >> almost a quarter billion shoppers will
., congress returns from a thanksgiving break he with talks to resolve the fiscal cliff. with no action by lawmakers and president obama, around 600 billion in tax hikes a and spending cuts would take effect in january. republicans and democrats are still in odds over the cause to raise taxes on the wealthiest and cutting on programs like medicare. but both sides saying they're willing to compromise. >> you have to raise additional revenues. there are ways of doing that. >>...
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Nov 23, 2012
11/12
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there is no fiscal cliff in europe. the the old budget will just continue ticking over until a new budget is agreed upon. and i think that will probably most likely happen well after christmas. probably going to have another budget at some time in january and then maybe, maybe we come to an agreement. >> like all of us, they'll be looking at their budgets after christmas. silvia, thanks very much for that. we'll catch you a little bit later. the mexican president calderon is trying to change mexico's name it mexico. the country's official name is united states of mexico. mexicans took to twitter for mock the maim change, many not seeing it as serious. we'd like to know what country's name would you change and to what. join the conversation. worldwide@cnbc.com, @cnbcwex, at ross westgate. >>> and planning major protests today. we'll be outside a walmart story near washington, d.c. can i help you? i heard you guys can ship ground for less than the ups store. that's right. i've learned the only way to get a holiday deal is
there is no fiscal cliff in europe. the the old budget will just continue ticking over until a new budget is agreed upon. and i think that will probably most likely happen well after christmas. probably going to have another budget at some time in january and then maybe, maybe we come to an agreement. >> like all of us, they'll be looking at their budgets after christmas. silvia, thanks very much for that. we'll catch you a little bit later. the mexican president calderon is trying to...
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Nov 21, 2012
11/12
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go over the fiscal cliff. in fact, ultimately, because of what the fed has done, we're going to have to go over a much bigger cliff as part of the solution to solve the problems that the fed helped create by allowing the government to get so big. >> is that fair, craig? >> it certainly is fair that long-term, what we've done with monetary policy could be a challenge. it could be a very big challenge. i don't think saying that if we -- if the fed hadn't done what they'd done, you wouldn't have to go off the cliff. i think you still have to deal with the fact that government spending has been too fast over the past -- well, since the recession ended. our gdp has grown at a rate of around 900 billion, while debt has grown at 1.7 trillion on an annualized basis. so at the end of the day, you have to deal with that. we've been living beyond our means as a country for too long and at some point, you have to pay a price for that. >> where does that leave you with your view of bonds? i mean, a lot of people -- you tal
go over the fiscal cliff. in fact, ultimately, because of what the fed has done, we're going to have to go over a much bigger cliff as part of the solution to solve the problems that the fed helped create by allowing the government to get so big. >> is that fair, craig? >> it certainly is fair that long-term, what we've done with monetary policy could be a challenge. it could be a very big challenge. i don't think saying that if we -- if the fed hadn't done what they'd done, you...
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Nov 22, 2012
11/12
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not going into this deep due to the fiscal cliff. and also signs of improvement in asia. >> meanwhile the french pmi says the survey there suggests a 0.7% gdp drop in quarter 4 for france. >> that seems quite large. we've seen in recent quarters numbers out of front which were higher than suggested by the pmis, however, they then revised down q2. so i'm looking for a contraction of 0.3 in france quarter on quarter in q4. >> what's going to change things, ricardo, what will turn things around? >> i think on the policy front, not much one can effect. fiscal policy will remain tight next year. the ecb doesn't have a huge margin to ease policy. i'm expecting that they will cut the refinancing rate. but i don't think it will go to negative rates for now. so they can only do perhaps 25 basis points on the main refinancing rate. the omt bond buying facility can only be activated if one of the countries apply. and it doesn't look like neither spain nor italy will apply anytime soon. and anyway the bond yields have declined quite a bit compar
not going into this deep due to the fiscal cliff. and also signs of improvement in asia. >> meanwhile the french pmi says the survey there suggests a 0.7% gdp drop in quarter 4 for france. >> that seems quite large. we've seen in recent quarters numbers out of front which were higher than suggested by the pmis, however, they then revised down q2. so i'm looking for a contraction of 0.3 in france quarter on quarter in q4. >> what's going to change things, ricardo, what will...